Podcast Episode: 0251 |
Is market consolidation the inevitable future of the automotive industry? Join us as we explore the fascinating parallels between the consolidation trends of the past and today's market dynamics. As markets reach saturation, we question whether the burgeoning electric vehicle sector will follow a similar path. |
Welcome back to the AutoLooks podcast. I am your host, as always, the doctor to the automotive industry, Mr. Everett J., coming to you from our host website at AutoLooks.net. If you haven't been there, stop by, check it out. Read some of the reviews, check out some of the ratings. Go to the corporate links website page. Big or small, we have them all car companies from around the globe, and currently we're in the process of updating it and adding all kinds of new car companies. We got about 40 of them sitting in the backlog to get added to the website. So just be patient with us. We're going to eventually get there. Hell, if I could do this full time, it'd be done already. So, if you'd like to donate or become a sponsor to help me out and push this fact and get the website up and going to its peak performance and tell some sponsors the AutoLooks podcast is brought to you by Ecomm Entertainment Group and distributed by PodBean.com. If you'd like to get in touch with us, send us an email over at [email protected].
But you have to remember car companies like General Motors had a multitude of different car companies. At one point Got to remember there's Chevrolet, Viking, Oakland, Oldsmobile, Buick, LaSalle, Cadillac and Pontiac, and eventually all of those became Chevrolet, Oldsmobile, Buick, Cadillac, GM. and Pontiac, and eventually all of those became Chevrolet, Oldsmobile, Buick, Cadillac, GM. and Pontiac. So, they consolidated into six standardized brands, giving way for Viking, Oakland and LaSalle, basically kicking the bucket three of them. Why? Because they were merged in with other brands. They consolidated them. They didn't need so many different marks Now that price points can go even further. They needed only one market capitalization for a car company. They didn't need a multitude of different ones cannibalizing each other's sales, and that's something that's actually happened in China.
Just take a look at some of the major players in China. Geely is the perfect example of it, with a multitude of different divisions. They're basically General Motors back in the 1920s. You've got Geely, you got Galaxy, you got London Electric Vehicles, you got Volvo, polestar, lotus, Lincoln Company, Zeekr, Farizon, Maple, Terrafuga, smart. Now they have Radar, they have QJ for their motorcycles and even Zhidou. Oh, and now they own Proton Auto as well. They own all of these divisions. Why do they need so many different divisions? Geely can handle things on the standardized product range, Volvo can handle the luxury and Zeekr can handle the mid-range. So, what's the point of having Proton and Geometry and Galaxy and Radar, like Radar is here to pick up the truck market. Well, Geely just needs to move into the truck market itself. Why do you need a new, separate brand?
Well, China, about a decade ago, decided to hold off on allowing more people to get cars. You basically had to sign up for a lottery to own a vehicle if you lived in a city. Now, if you live way out in the middle of nowhere. You can get a vehicle like nothing. So those people, as their incomes increased, they were able to buy vehicles for the first time ever.
See, that was the thing During the 20s when Ford Motor Company really blew up on the world. There was no market before that. Before that it was a horse and buggy. So, companies that built horse and buggies and cutters were huge. They were everywhere. But eventually their market would tap out as the automotive industry would come into play. And with the automobile coming into play, everybody wanted to get in. So, when you have a burgeoning marketplace, everyone wants a piece of it.
Now the Chinese marketplace has been booming for over 20 years, but you remember, remember they have over a billion people and they had a very small market share before. At the turn of the century, you were looking at over about 200 million people. Now it still seems a massive market, considering the fact that my home country, Canada, is essentially 40 million people and when you're looking at the automotive marketplace, you're looking at maybe closer to 30 million people possibly to purchase vehicles in my home country. Now, in China, out of that 200 million people, you're still looking at over 150 million people that can afford to purchase vehicles. That was a pretty big market, but you have to remember there's 800 million other people that could get into that marketplace. So, no wonder when they went from a pure communist to a communist capitalist marketplace, the market took off and all these little car companies started coming out of everywhere and even the pre-existing ones started adding more and more and more.
You have to remember Geely originally started out as Geely. They used to have a brand called Gleagle, but they merged that into Geely. Then there was Emgrand, then there was Galaxy, then there was Geometry, then there was Geome. All these car companies had a place in the market, kind of like how ford created Mercury to sit between ford products and Lincoln products on top. You needed those changes. You needed to fit into those marketplaces. As of right now, in the north American marketplace, you essentially have three product ranges for vehicles you have your standardized product, you have your standardized product, you have your premium product and you have your luxury product. There are no more economy makes in the North American climate and there's no more high-end makes. These areas are up for grabs but they feel there's no market share.
American Motors made money during this time frame and even after it, during the gas crisis, with the AMC Pacer and Gremlin, which weren't the world's greatest vehicles, but hell. They saved American Motors at that point in time. Unfortunately, they both rode on their own dedicated platforms, which, if you've listened to our podcast about American Motors, you understand that essentially, the two of them should have built off the same platform to save American Motors money. Platform building. Come on, guys, we got this. See, General Motors consolidated all kinds of stuff together, but they also used platform building to hit all those different markets.
But when the financial crisis of 2008 really set in and the marketplace in North America hit its peak, they realized very quickly that they had too many car companies. Hummer was killed off, Saab was killed off, Saturn was killed off, Pontiac was killed off. Oldsmobile was let go a few years before that because there was no need by the late 90s and early 2000s for two premium brands. For General Motors. The market wasn't big enough to sustain two of them, so Buick and it basically handled it all. So, Oldsmobile's products were essentially absorbed into both Saab and Buick.
There were consolidated information and with consolidation sometimes nameplates come along. Now don't expect to see something like an Oldsmobile Aurora or the Cutlass 442 come back, because those cars are dead with the name. We have the Challenger, because Chrysler wanted to give us the Dodge Challenger and Pony Car, but everybody wants the Cuda. The Cuda was the king, the Challenger was its counterpart. But since they consolidated Plymouth into the Dodge lineup, the Cuda can't come back because the Cuda is a Plymouth product even in today's world. But you can buy aftermarket kits to turn your Challenger into a Cuda.
So, in the North American climate we created all kinds of little entry-level products. General Motors wanted to fight off the Asian invasion, so they created Saturn to go up with them. Quality products at a decent price. Then they entered the bottom field. They had Geo, Asuna, hell. They took over Suzuki and basically used Suzuki and Isuzu to bring their small cars to the North American marketplace to get the entry-level products, the economy field, you know that one that doesn't exist with Jeff Bezos and his Slate Company. He's trying to create right now that entry-level economy products.
Economy doesn't always mean crap, but it does mean entry-level pricing, and that's what happened in the late 80s and early 90s. We got a lot of these entry-level products in and Plymouth took two steps back, where Plymouth became more of their entry-level brand. Then you went to a Dodge and then the Eagle brand got pushed in. Now the Eagle brand eventually got pushed in only because of the fall of American Motors. And if you want to learn more about Eagle, listen to our podcast about Eagle Motors and you'll understand where they came from, why they were here and why they had to go All from the AutoLooks Podcast. And then, after Eagle, we got into Chrysler, so they had more brands. But by the end of the 90s we were consolidating. Yet again, there was no difference between an Eagle or a Dodge, so it was killed off Eventually. There was no difference between a Dodge and a Plymouth, so it was killed off.
American Motors was another major consolidation of. All kinds of American players Came out the 1920s boom. All those manufacturers eventually became one. They consolidated into one to survive and that's what is eventually going to happen within the next decade to the Chinese marketplace. We're seeing the beginning of it right now in 2025. The market is slowly starting to peak and with that we're starting to see automakers lose ground. Got to remembers Leap Motors just formed an alliance with Stellantis to keep itself alive. But you have to remember Stellantis is a giant company with tons of automotive divisions and it needs to consolidate itself together as well.
Why do we both need Chrysler and Lancia? Why can't we have one? Why do we have Dodge, Opel, Vauxhall, Citroën, Fiat, hell? They all ride in the same grounds. Bump Fiat down to the economy brand and keep one or two of the brands. It's hard to maintain a mass number of automotive companies when the market is expanding like it is right now and it has been for the past 20 years in China. Who cares? You're selling cars constantly. You're making money off of anything you can push out. You're trying to find any subdivision, division, any marketplace you can get your vehicles into. If there's a price point that hasn't been hit yet, hell, let's throw a new company at it.
They split Volvo and Polestar out. But you have to remember, eventually Polestar is either going to have to become Volvo or Volvo is going to have to become Polestar. Volkswagen is slowly starting to make that decision between SEAT and Cupra. Is Cupra going to become back part of SEAT Motors or has that name become so strong and SEAT become a distant memory that they can literally shut the doors on SEAT and consolidate all of its operations into the Cupra brand, similar to how Geely has basically moved Gleagle into its own home garage and how Emgrand and Galaxy are now one. Essentially, Emgrand and Geometry consolidated together and now become the Galaxy brand from Geely. So eventually Volvo and Polestar will have to do that. Lynk & Co. and Zeekr will have to do that. Omoda and Jaecoo they're the same company.
They're eventually going to have to consolidate because people will just find it too confusing. We get it, it's from Chery Automotive, you're a premium brand, but let's just make one name. It becomes confusing and, like we said, when the market hits a peak, you can't maintain all of these car companies. If you want total proof of that, go and ask General Motors how easy it is to run a multitude of different car companies. Why do you think they consolidated themselves down to just four? Hell, when they brought back Hummer. Hummer isn't even a dedicated brand. It's a Hummer sub-brand of GMC, kind of like the Denali nameplate. Hell, Horch and Maybach have made their resurgence into the world. The same way you can now get an Audi Horch, you don't get the Horch badge yet, even though Horch was one of the original automotive companies that merged together to form Auto Union or, as we best know it now, Audi. Audi is a perfect example of automotive consolidation.
Germany had way too many car companies and their market was not growing, so four car companies came together and joined themselves so they could better compete in the marketplace. They originally were called Auto Union and each car company had its name imprinted in the original logo, but eventually that changed. Their names disappeared and it was still Auto Union, and then eventually they shortened it and it became Audi. They consolidated four companies into one, so now they only had to focus on one brand. See, right now we're starting to see a couple of the bigger car companies in China see that they need different parts of the market. NIO has now created Innova and Xpeng has created Firefly. They both needed entry-level vehicles where they sit, both in a premium price point. So, they need these new divisions to keep themselves into longevity. They don't want to wind up like little companies like New, because that was one that barely even got off the ground. Hell, right now Neta is thinking of joining ranks with Toyota. Hell, Nissan, the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance has all come unraveled. Renault is now focusing on itself, alpine and Dacia, where Nissan and Mitsubishi are still kicking around each other. But they may not be able to survive. And Mitsubishi knows this and, being not directly owned by Nissan, they're getting into bed with other car companies. They're getting into bed with Foxconn, or better known as Foxtron Automotive, to help build new electric vehicles.
But when the market eventually collapses, you're going to start to see these car companies either pull out or die out. Think about it Xiaomi is already getting flack for its vehicle and with an SUV on the way, will it be able to hold off and maintain its place in the market as the Chinese market is starting to plateau? Huawei's already have tons of money behind them, but they're trying to enter marketplaces where they can know they can make more money. Their Avatr brand may disappear and Alibaba's IM brand may disappear, but their host companies will be able to stick it out. But companies like Niu, Xpeng, NIO, Juneyao or even Li Auto can they make? Make it? They only just started out, but you have to remember Tesla paved the way for electric vehicles globally, where bid was already getting into that and already had knowledge of it made it so much easier for them to expand across the world.
BYD has been smart in their play, though, where most of their entries are only in the sub-brand categories, so there's no consolidation in the end. BYD essentially just needs to kill off sub-brands from the sales, which is a smarter play, because who really cares if the Denali edition from GMC disappears? They're going to lose their luxury name. But if they change it and turn the Hummer nameplate into their new luxury end, well, it's just been replaced. We'll miss the Denali, but it has a replacement. If a company like neo just goes belly up, then we'll remember.
And in the past few years we've seen tons of these new divisions open up Dongfeng's getting into it, GAC’s getting into it, BYD’s getting into it, Chery, Changan Automotive Group, FAW they're all getting into a multitude of different brands. Changan has been on a freaking blitz lately with new brands with Qiyuan and Deepal. Come on, it's two new brands competing with your standardized products, but they're going after two different select categories of the market. But like we said, the market is about to hit its peak and in the past little while we've seen companies like Borden, Byte, Dorsen and even Cruise in north America bite the dust. Cruise was at the top of its game. It had everything going for it and then all of a sudden, gm has one major issue with their product. They pull the plug on it. Essentially, they just moved everything in-house to GM technology.
Eventually, the consolidation needed to happen. Faraday Future is now partnering up with Foxconn Lordstown Automotive. Its manufacturing plant, just before it went bankrupt, was bought by Foxconn Automotive. Foxconn has deep pockets with Foxtron and they want to invest and get into the automotive marketplace. They're another one from the Asian marketplace that really wants to go out on a global scale.
Like I said, they're teaming up with Mitsubishi, of all companies, to try and get themselves a name with a multitude of different products. They're trying to accomplish that. Another company would be VinFast, originally teaming up with BMW to build their first vehicle. Now they're all out on their own but they're going it all alone. They're trying to enter these marketplaces and pick up all these loose pieces that have died out before. Like I said, Bollinger is going into bankruptcy but Bollinger just became a division of Mullen Automotive, kind of like Electric Meccanica from BC. That’s British Columbia, if you didn't know that, from Canada they're merging together. So, these electric car companies are starting to consolidate with each other. They're trying to maintain themselves in the marketplace. Hell, it makes you think maybe Fisker should have joined with somebody before going belly up.
BYD, Geely, Dongfang, FAW, Shanghai Automotive Group, Beijing Automotive, Great Wall Motors and Chery are essentially the dominant brands. Then we also have the smaller makes, which are trying to keep a foothold in the marketplace, with NIO, Xpeng, Xiaomi, Seres, Li Auto and Huawei. They're trying to maintain themselves in a marketplace that needs to consolidate. There are too many brands. We get it. Japan has managed to keep Honda, Toyota, Nissan, Suzuki, Mitsubishi, Isuzu all alive. Sure, Daihatsu is there, but Daihatsu is part of Toyota Motor Corporation. Now Hyundai has consolidated itself with Kia, and in the Korean marketplace there's only one reigning champion of the automotive world, because their marketplace reached its peak, so it can only afford to have one major car company North America. In the United States there's only two left General Motors and Ford. American Motors bit the dust got taken over by Chrysler Corporation and Chrysler's now part of Stellantis.
So, who do you think is going to be joining each other? BYD’s one of the bigger players. Geely's got tons of divisions. Dongfang's holding on. Same with FAW, they have a transport division. Now with Changan it's a little different. They were the small guy 20 years ago and they've never really come out of their shell. Now they're trying to push as many divisions out as possible to keep themselves going, but unfortunately, consolidation is about to happen. Beijing Automotive, BAW, and JMC. Eventually, those three conglomerates are going to have to join forces together to keep themselves alive. Now Chery's got a multitude of different divisions as well, and they're going to have to pull up their shoes to keep themselves going. Now NIO and Xpeng are small enough to keep themselves in a right foothold in the marketplace right now, but unfortunately, being the smaller guy, when the market does essentially retract, even just slightly for a year or two, they can literally be put out to pasture.
Expansion into other markets can help keep all your divisions alive. Hell, Buick is only alive today because they sold a lot of cars in China. If they weren't selling a lot of cars in China, Buick would have been kicked to the curb and Pontiac would have survived, because Pontiac sales in North America were higher than Buick at that point in time. Only the sales in China of Buick kept them alive. But GM needed to consolidate, so they did it.
Expanding into new markets is one of the few ways, but that can be a problem as well, as we're seeing right now. Tariffs, the cost of new plants for expansion, entering new marketplaces, the environment and social impacts of new marketplaces can rain in on your finances and literally cause you to crash and burn easily. Starbucks learned this very quickly when they went to Japan, not realizing that in Japan what you sell customers has to look exactly like the sign on the wall, because they have anti-advertising, which means their advertisements can only show what you're about to get. They didn't learn the marketplace consolidation happens no matter what.
Sometimes we bring companies in to try and gain new technology footholds. Toyota bought out Subaru from GM because they wanted their all-wheel drive systems and Subaru wanted the hybrid systems for theirs. Leap Motor and Stellantis. Stellantis wants new electric vehicle technology. Leap Motor knows it better than Stellantis. General Motors wanted new economy cars for the growing entry-level economy marketplace of the 80s and 90s. So, they picked up Suzuki. Renault and Nissan got into bed with each other because they thought they could share costs for their product ranges. The marriage worked, but in the end, they didn't fully consolidate each other. So really in the end they failed each other.
Without consolidation, a lot of these car companies wouldn't exist today. And if the Chinese marketplace wants to survive in a world of tomorrow, over the next decade, all of these big players are going to have to start consolidating with each other. You can't just keep focusing on spanning across world marketplaces. NIO wants to take on the world and they think the Onovo brand is going to help them enter into a brand-new foothold marketplace. But if NIO can't make it in Europe, it can't fall back on China, because the market has hit a peak. Global expansion is all they have to look forward to.
What do you think Tesla did when they opened their plant in Germany and they opened the plant in China? They did that to take over the marketplace, but now, with so many competitors and the market starting to retract to both areas, they're failing. Will Tesla have to consolidate with somebody? Well, they've taken way too long to create a full product lineup Like come on two sedans, two ALVs and a pickup truck and it's been 20 years. 20 years, that's all you've done. It's a far cry from a lot of these Chinese companies that have come out. NIO has more products than Tesla and they're half their age. Will Tesla and NIO have to consolidate with each other? You never know.
As of right now, there are nine major automotive players in China. Within the next decade, it'll probably be whittled down to at least eight. 50 years from now we'll probably be at five or six. Eventually it's going to consolidate upon itself, whether it be outside partners or inside partners. The marketplace will eventually become part of each other.
Look at Stellantis. It's a global car company. It doesn't just focus on one select area. It's consolidated so much. It's French, it's Italian, it's Chinese, it's American, a Volkswagen automotive group. It's Germany, Czech Republic, American, Italian and French. We're becoming more of a global marketplace. That's why consolidation happens in so many different markets. We need to consolidate and merge each other into, to create global presence. A time where we can have a million different companies producing a million different things is slowly dwindling. I get it. We don't like monopolies in the world, but unfortunately in the automotive world eventually you're only going to have a few. Choices are few and far between. General Motors may have four divisions, still kind of like Toyota, but eventually some of them will fail and with that they'll either be consolidated together or consolidated out.
This is a podcast that you know 30, 40 years from now we might be talking about this yet again, about the Indian marketplace. And after you've done that, after you sent this out and you contacted and you tagged and told everybody about this podcast, stop by the website, read some of the reviews, check out some of the rates. Go to the Corporate Links website page, big or small. We have them all, car companies from around the globe, all available on the AutoLooks.net website and if you'd like to get in touch with us, send us an email over at email at AutoLooks.net. The AutoLooks podcast is brought to you by Ecomm Entertainment Group and distributed at PodBean.com. If you'd like to get in touch with us, send us an email over at email at AutoLooks.net. So, from myself, Everett Jay, the AutoLooks.net website and podcast, and the Ecomm Entertainment Group, strap yourself in for this one fun wild ride that the world of consolidation is going to take us on.
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